Will AI progress slow down before July 2027 due to an agreement to 'pace the frontier'?
AIOne-Off8mnd
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 72.4%
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10
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
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Bijgewerkt 14 uur geleden
Verouderd12 sep 26, 15:14 UTC30 jun 27, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiRegels
Resolves according to whether something like the scenario Dario describes here has come to pass, at least through mid-2027, in a way that seems like it has counter-factually decreased AI capabilities at that time relative to if it hadn't happened.
- I expect only Anthropic and OpenAI need to agree to this.
- Still resolves YES if the agreement is not voluntary (e.g. the government imposes this upon the labs)
- Resolves by a poll of Manifold users created within a week of the resolution time.
- The poll will have an "I don't know" option that causes the market to resolve N/A
- https://darioamodei.com/post/we-must-pace-the-frontier#why-pace-