Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingExponential (similar to 2020 to 2026), indicates some proto-AGI likely in that timeframe 31%Koploper van 4 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
12
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd8 mrt 26, 07:17 UTC31 dec 33, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
If Trump wins, will the US government enact legislation that significantly slows down AI progress?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?
Manifold MarketsPossible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketDeepSeek market share this week
KalshiRegels
Main factors for this
- Valuations + Revenues of Labs (OpenAI, Anthropic showing ~exponential growth in ARR and funding)
- Overall economic status (employment, GDP growth etc)
- Benchmarks (e.g. METR, ECI, AA) which have generally improved at a roughly constant rate with that rate increasing (roughly double) since mid 2024
- [image]Leaving Other for A. Sublinear (e.g. fraudulent, waste of money) bubble pops (idk FTX, NFT, type things).
- Though I think bubble popping similar to dot com might still be linear growth overall, just that the expectation of exponential leads to valuations popping, and other things like AI takeover (seems more aligned with Hyperexponential since we’re discussing AI progress rather than human progress) and or pausing AI development “early” idk, basically anything that doesn’t fit neatly into
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba-3.5pt84.6%
- Moonshot+4.7pt10.6%
- Z.ai+0.3pt1.9%
+8 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 410,1K
- 24u volume
- € 56,4K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.4pt70%
- ChatGPT-0.8pt15%
- Gemini+0.1pt7%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,7 mln.
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt87%
- December 15,+1.0pt84%
- November 30,+6.0pt79%
+7 extra uitkomsten
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%91%
- Above 4.5%+19.0pt41%
- Above 5.6%+10.0pt20%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 58,4K
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 22.7%99%
- Above 21.7%99%
- Above 23.6%-1.0pt95%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 70K
- 24u volume
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 extra uitkomsten
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Best AI this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic market share this week
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033?
- Manifold Markets prijst Exponential (similar to 2020 to 2026), indicates some proto-AGI likely in that timeframe op 31% per 17 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033 afgewikkeld?
- AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033 wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2033 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033 afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Main factors for this