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Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels) 92.1%Koploper van 14 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
41
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 7 uur geleden
Verouderd8 jan 25, 12:19 UTC31 jan 28, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegels
Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage made a public bet about AI development.
- The terms of the bet are articulated in this substack post. https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/where-will-ai-be-at-the-end-of-2027
Open markten
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
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+3 extra uitkomsten
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- 24u volume
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POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
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KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
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POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage?
- Manifold Markets prijst Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels) op 92% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage afgewikkeld?
- Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage wordt naar verwachting op 31 januari 2028 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage made a public bet about AI development.