Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Ja 96.1%
Voorspellers
17
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 8 uur geleden
Verouderd1 jul 23, 13:47 UTC31 dec 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will AI contribute novel theorywork to agent foundations before 2028?
Manifold Marketswill a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRegels
When integrated with tools such as formal proof verifiers, internet search, and symbolic math packages, I expect, say, 2026-level AI, when used properly, will be a trustworthy co-author in mathematical research, and in many other fields as well.
- this one is for 2028
- Resolves YES if a real professional mathematician claims this happened for them, unless consensus of other experts is that it didn't happen
- https://unlocked.microsoft.com/ai-anthology/terence-tao/