Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 73.6%
Voorspellers
13
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 8 uur geleden
Verouderd24 jul 26, 14:59 UTC31 dec 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Regels
Resolves YES if either John Wentworth, Thane Ruthenis, or David Lorell publicly states something to the effect of "AI did something novel/surprising/non-obvious" regarding their own or field-adjacent agent-foundations work, ORN.
- If ambiguous, I will personally message the named people for them to resolve this market on their own.
- If I couldn't reach out to them, or they somehow disagree with each other, I will resolve N/A. I may modify this market's description within 48 hours after market creation
- context: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gko3r6hvkSXrbDFPD/ai-for-agent-foundations-etc?commentId=JgyrFpenpLukwrqhq
Open markten
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Totaal volume
- € 224,7K
- 24u volume
- € 160,5K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,3 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 344,9K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will AI contribute novel theorywork to agent foundations before 2028??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 74% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will AI contribute novel theorywork to agent foundations before 2028? afgewikkeld?
- Will AI contribute novel theorywork to agent foundations before 2028? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will AI contribute novel theorywork to agent foundations before 2028? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves YES if either John Wentworth, Thane Ruthenis, or David Lorell publicly states something to the effect of "AI did something novel/surprising/non-obvious" regarding their own or field-adjacent agent-foundations work, ORN.