Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 73.6%
Voorspellers
13
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd24 jul 26, 14:59 UTC31 dec 27, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will AI contribute as much as a co-author would today to a real research mathematics paper before Jan 1 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill "Agent Foundations Reminds Me of Continental P..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill agent foundations [eg Scott Garrabrant] end up affecting p(doom) more than 5%?
Manifold MarketsWill "Agent foundations: not really math, not reall..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegels
Resolves YES if either John Wentworth, Thane Ruthenis, or David Lorell publicly states something to the effect of "AI did something novel/surprising/non-obvious" regarding their own or field-adjacent agent-foundations work, ORN.
- If ambiguous, I will personally message the named people for them to resolve this market on their own.
- If I couldn't reach out to them, or they somehow disagree with each other, I will resolve N/A. I may modify this market's description within 48 hours after market creation
- context: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gko3r6hvkSXrbDFPD/ai-for-agent-foundations-etc?commentId=JgyrFpenpLukwrqhq