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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 11 uur geleden
Verouderd22 feb 25, 06:12 UTC31 dec 30, 21:59 UTC
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Will AI contribute as much as a co-author would today to a real research mathematics paper before Jan 1 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?
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Manifold MarketsFrontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?
PolymarketFrontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026?
PolymarketRegels
I'd like a concrete list of "frontier labs", but don't want to exclude newcomers.
- I'll write a list below, but if there are labs that aren't on the list but plausibly could be considered frontier, I'll make a manifold poll and rule based on the markets decision.
- Also please comment if you think I've missed one:
- DeepMind/Google
- Alibaba (NOTE: this used to say Qwen, but Qwen is the name of the model, not the lab)
- XAI (Elon musk lab)
