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AGI 76.6%
Voorspellers
32
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+22.4 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 4 uur geleden
VerouderdTrends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will commercial nuclear fusion exist in April of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich engineering breakthroughs will achieve widespread commercial and societal integration by 2050? [add responses]
Manifold MarketsWhen will nuclear fusion be achieved?
KalshiWill Helion provide nuclear fusion power to a data center before end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiWhen will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
KalshiRegels
Resolves when either the named outcome reaches 1% of electricity globally, or when artificial general intelligence is reached.
- If none of these ever get achieved by humanity, this never resolves.
Open markten
AIKALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+8.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 267,3K
- 24u volume
- € 95,6K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.3pt69.2%
- ChatGPT-1.1pt13.5%
- Gemini+1.3pt10.6%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 10,1 mln.
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-5.0pt72%
- December 15,+4.5pt65%
- November 30,-7.0pt44%
+7 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.65%+4.0pt99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.55%99%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 272K
- 24u volume
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+8.0pt99%
- Above 24%+6.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%99%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 211,1K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T-0.4pt25.3%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt20%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.8%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best AI this week
- Next Claude Opus released on?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will AGI or widespread commercial nuclear fusion be developed first??
- Manifold Markets prijst AGI op 77% per 20 september 2026.
- Hoe wordt Will AGI or widespread commercial nuclear fusion be developed first? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves when either the named outcome reaches 1% of electricity globally, or when artificial general intelligence is reached.