Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?
One-OffAI3mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 68.4%
Voorspellers
35
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binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
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Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd15 nov 23, 10:06 UTC31 dec 26, 23:30 UTC
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KalshiRegels
This market is quite similar to the following market.
- However, instead of focusing on the papers, it focuses a bit more on the practicality aspect by considering a mixture of the most commonly used models and the SOTA models at the end of 2026.
- I am including both Adam and close variants (e.g. AdamW).
- I will sample a mixture of open source best models in 2026.
- Not participating in this market in case judgement is required.
- If training details are not provided, can reach out to the creators of the models, if they decline, we move on and pick the next best thing
Open markten
AIKALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
- Above 72.5%96%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 63,6K
- 24u volume
- € 63,6K
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- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.8pt68.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt15.7%
- Gemini+0.2pt6.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,5 mln.
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,85%
- December 31,-3.5pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-9.9pt81%
- 1530-0.1pt4%
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KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude89.9%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT1.8%
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- Totaal volume
- € 27,4K
- 24u volume
- € 27,4K
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 68% per 15 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market is quite similar to the following market.