Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2030?
GeopolitiekOne-OffRusland / OekraïneChinaLatijns-AmerikaMidden-OostenGezondheid en geneeskunde3j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 74.5%
Voorspellers
11
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 10 minuten geleden
1 jun 23, 06:33 UTC1 jan 30, 08:00 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill North Korea attack South Korea's outlying islands, causing fatalities, before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Venezuela continue submissive to american demands in 2026?
Manifold MarketsAny G20 leader out in 2026?
PolymarketRegels
As of 2023, global conflict hotspots include areas such as Taiwan due to China's aggression, Ukraine due to escalating conflict, Russia due to growing civil unrest, and regions involving North Korea, Israel, and Iran due to their respective nuclear programs.
- Additionally, migration surges to the U.S. from Central America and Mexico due to increased violence and acute weather events have heightened tensions.
- The potential for these conflicts to escalate into war with substantial casualties is a pressing concern for global security.
- Before January 1st, 2030, will a war occur anywhere in the world that results in the death of over one million people?
- Resolution Criteria:
- This question will resolve positively if, before January 1st, 2030, credible sources confirm that a war has occurred in any region of the world resulting in the death of over one million people within one year.