Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 82.3%
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Bijgewerkt 7 uur geleden
Verouderd9 apr 26, 20:48 UTC31 mrt 27, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
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KalshiRegels
This Question resolves YES if METR makes it known publicly that an AI model has an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks.
- It will resolve N/A if METR announces the end of time horizons or stops doing them.
- n/a if they don’t release a task that long
Open markten
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
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+3 extra uitkomsten
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- € 135,2K
- 24u volume
- € 102,7K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
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+7 extra uitkomsten
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KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
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- Totaal volume
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks by April 2027??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 82% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks by April 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks by April 2027? wordt naar verwachting op 31 maart 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks by April 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This Question resolves YES if METR makes it known publicly that an AI model has an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks.