Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling3.5-4 months 24.9%Koploper van 10 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
76
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multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
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Bijgewerkt 23 minuten geleden
16 jan 26, 20:49 UTC1 jan 27, 04:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027?
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KalshiRegels
This market matches Software Engineering: METR Time Horizon Doubling Time from the AI 2026 Forecasting Survey by AI Digest.
- See other manifold questions here
- [image]Resolution criteria
- Resolves to the best-fit doubling time for METR-HRS frontier models as of December 31, 2026, computed using the methodology described in the More Info section of the survey (see here).
- If METR releases an updated METR-HRS suite that is a clear successor with comparable difficulty for questions at the same horizon length, this question will be resolved based on the updated task suite.
- Which AI systems count?