Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 60.5%
Voorspellers
23
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 8 uur geleden
Verouderd13 feb 23, 18:26 UTC1 jan 76, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully restored by end of 2050?
Manifold MarketsIn 2029, will at least 75% of Nectome clients be ideally preserved?
Manifold MarketsWill cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
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PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegels
The restored subject must have previously been declared legally dead.
- For a positive resolution, the restored subject must be awake, be able to communicate, and live for at least one month.
- For purposes of this market, successfully uploading the subject's mind digitally such that the subject is commonly believed to be conscious and retains ~50% or more of the memory function that they would have had at death is sufficient for a positive resolution.
- Companion Markets:
Open markten
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 226,3K
- 24u volume
- € 125,2K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 28,6 mln.
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 108,3K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 5,2K
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully restored by end of 2075??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 61% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully restored by end of 2075? afgewikkeld?
- Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully restored by end of 2075? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2076 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully restored by end of 2075? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: The restored subject must have previously been declared legally dead.