Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingZohran Mamdani 27.1%-2.3ptKoploper van 49 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
214
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
-1.5 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 5 minuten geleden
30 nov 25, 19:39 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?
Manifold MarketsWho or what will appear on the cover of TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year issue? [add answers]
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky win the Time Magazine person of the year by 2042?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegels
This question resolves to the TIME 2026 Person of The Year.
- It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers.
- If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.
- In ambiguous cases, I will try to match the resolution of the market to who Wikipedia lists in their TIME Person of The Year article.
Vergelijking van voorspellingsbronnen
- Ook beschikbaar op Polymarket — TIME Person of the Year 2026 · Zohran Mamdani 30%
- Ook beschikbaar op Futuur — TIME Person of the Year 2026 · Zohran Mamdani 37%
- Ook beschikbaar op Kalshi — Time's Person of the Year for 2026 · Zohran Mamdani 30%
Open markten
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 135,2K
- 24u volume
- € 102,7K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 325K
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year??
- Manifold Markets prijst Zohran Mamdani op 27% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year? afgewikkeld?
- Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This question resolves to the TIME 2026 Person of The Year.
- Waar wordt Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year? nog meer aangeboden?
- Dezelfde vraag wordt ook aangeboden op Polymarket, Futuur, Kalshi.