Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingMojtaba Khamenei 83.3%Koploper van 13 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
54
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 4 uur geleden
Verouderd9 jan 26, 14:14 UTC1 jan 27, 00:00 UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRegels
The paramount leader is whoever the de facto leader of Iran is, regardless of their specific job title.
- Currently this is Supreme Leader the named outcome.
- If there is a complicated messy civil war, this goes by who controls the capital and governing apparatus.
- I intend to go by a similar standard to the CIA World Factbook or the Wikipedia infobox, though I don't commit to matching them if they're outdated or inaccurate.
- Update 2026-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Iran adopts a constitutional monarchy or similar system where the head of state has little de facto power, the market resolves to whoever holds the most de facto power (e.g., the head of government), not the nominal head of state.