Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
No UBI 75.8%Koploper van 4 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
21
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 56 minuten geleden
Vertraagd29 dec 23, 02:33 UTC1 jan 40, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will things basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years?
Manifold MarketsIf the U.S. unemployment doesn't exceed 30% due to AI before 2040, which of these will be major reasons why?
Manifold MarketsWill AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in September?
PolymarketInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
KalshiCPI in August
KalshiRegels
UBI Policy Levels:
- Utopian: Equal to or greater than the top 90% annual income in 2023.
- Median: Equal to the median national income in 2023.
- Minimum Wage: Equal to the legal minimum wage in 2023.
- Resolution Criteria:
- Resolves positively for the first universal basic income (UBI) scenario that most closely matches the policy officially adopted in the US or UK (after a 'resolves after' condition is met).
Open markten
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 89,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,7 mln.
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 541,2K
- 24u volume
- € 30,7K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 334,2K
- 24u volume
- € 12,8K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt53.9%
- September Meeting+1.0pt46.1%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.5pt51.4%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.3%
- 0.1%-1.5pt10.5%
+4 extra uitkomsten
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 77,9K
- 24u volume
- € 5,5K
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- Argentina Monthly Inflation - August
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- August Inflation US - Annual
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Which UBI policy will be adopted after mass unemployment due to AI??
- Manifold Markets prijst No UBI op 76% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Which UBI policy will be adopted after mass unemployment due to AI? afgewikkeld?
- Which UBI policy will be adopted after mass unemployment due to AI? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2040 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Which UBI policy will be adopted after mass unemployment due to AI? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: UBI Policy Levels: