Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingInsurgencies in Iran 100%Koploper van 10 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
82
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 9 uur geleden
Verouderd25 feb 26, 16:47 UTC31 jan 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
100%
100%
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Venezuela enter a new hot war with anyone by the end of 2026?
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FutuurWill conflicts in the 2020s be called The Drone Wars?
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Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRegels
Any number of these conflicts might resolve Yes this year, once they enter the Minor Wars or Major Wars categories on Wikipedia's List of Ongoing Armed Conflicts.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts
- I will be fairly liberal with what counts as a conflict.
- Unlike previous versions of this market, we are now using article titles for existing civil conflicts, and are only using country pairings for conflicts not already on the page.
- If a new conflict article or country pairing gets folded into an existing article, the question will only resolve Yes if the encompassing article is both over the threshold AND the beligerents from the country pairing fought in the current year.
- This means that changes in Wiki policy or recategorization of past articles should not count by themselves for this market.
Open markten
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 22,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 581,3K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 55,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 96,8K
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Which of these conflicts will turn into a hot war in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst Insurgencies in Iran op 100% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Which of these conflicts will turn into a hot war in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Which of these conflicts will turn into a hot war in 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 31 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Which of these conflicts will turn into a hot war in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Any number of these conflicts might resolve Yes this year, once they enter the Minor Wars or Major Wars categories on Wikipedia's List of Ongoing Armed Conflicts.