Manifold MarketsGeslotenGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdDeze markt is beslist: Opus (99%)
Afgewikkeld: 24 jul 2026, 17:03
Door provider geverifieerde afwikkeling
CoinRithm heeft provider-onderbouwd bewijs voor de winnaar en afwikkelingstijd van deze markt.
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingOpus 99%+7.1ptKoploper van 5 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
23
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 27 dagen geleden
Verouderd3 jul 26, 4:3224 jul 26, 17:03
Waarschijnlijkheidstijdlijn
Opus99%
Haiku0.4%
Mythos0.2%
A previously unreleased tier under a new name0.2%
A new checkpoint of Fable or Sonnet with updated version number (e.g. 5.1)0.2%
99%
0.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
Regels
— The model must be released publicly to qualify, i.e. if Opus 5 gets a limited release (similar to what's been going on with Mythos and GPT-5.6) followed by a GA release of Haiku, the latter will be considered as having been released first.
- — The existing version(s) of Mythos will qualify if released into general access before any other qualifying model.
- — Any 4.x versions, in case Anthropic decides to continue that branch for some reason, will not qualify.
- The most recent release as of this market's creation date is Sonnet 5, which is the third release in the Claude 5 series following Mythos 5 and Fable 5.
