![[5k Subsidy] Which diseases will be eliminated first in the USA? 1st solved 100%, 2nd 95%, 3rd 90%, etc. until mid 2036](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2FErnie%252F9b728a68a79f.jpg&w=128&q=80)
[5k Subsidy] Which diseases will be eliminated first in the USA? 1st solved 100%, 2nd 95%, 3rd 90%, etc. until mid 2036
RegelgevingAI9j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Malaria 66.8%Koploper van 35 uitkomsten
Malaria 66.8%Voorspellers
42
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 18 uur geleden
Verouderd25 feb 24, 22:07 UTC1 jul 36, 06:59 UTC
Trends
Macrogevoelige Assets
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
October 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
PolymarketWill the Supreme Court decide that sports event contracts are protected under the Commodities Exchange Act? [1k subsidy]
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiCATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026?
Manifold MarketsU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketBy Oct 31, 2026, will openai.com say its agents accessed a U.S. federal government system without authorization?
Manifold MarketsRegels
Cured means that in the US, the disease occurs/harms/kills at a rate <=10% the rate it occurred in US residents at EOY 2023 (or best available).
- That is, the rate of new cases of the disease has decreased by at least 90%
- OR, cases happen more often that that BUT the negative consequences can and are normally and easily solved. i.e. if it does happen, the damage done is only 10% as bad as before (by total life expectancy or total QALY impact).
- For example, if we make a disease which used to cause -10 lifespan only take -2, that's not quite enough, but if we also reduce the negative QALY impact by 90%, then that is clearly enough.
- Hard case: where the combined improvement is >90% but the individual QALY+expectancy numbers aren't below it.
- I would like to count this case as a yes but that is proportional to net damage.