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  3. When will there be significant shipping interruptions in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait?
Manifold Markets

When will there be significant shipping interruptions in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait?

One-OffPolitiekGeopolitiekMiddle East19d
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsGeen KYC
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Manifold Markets
By 2026-04-15 0%
Koploper van 6 uitkomsten
Voorspellers

14

Vraagtype

multiple choice

Methodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Brontype

Voorspelling

Marktdata

Bijgewerkt 4 dagen geleden

Verouderd
29 mrt 26, 11:4230 jun 26, 11:05

Trends

Uitkomst24uKans
Manifold Markets
By 2026-04-15
0%
Manifold Markets
By 2026-04-30
0%
Manifold Markets
By 2026-05-15
0%
Manifold Markets
By 2026-05-31
0%

Gekozen uitkomst

By 2026-06-154%

Regels

When will there be a significant reduction in shipping through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait?

Manifold Markets
  • Resolution Criteria
  • An option above will resolve to YES if, by the stated date (international standard date format), there is a reduction of 75% or more in all ships passing through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait for at least 7 consecutive days relative to the 7-day moving average for the prior year.
  • I will use data from IMF PortWatch to resolve the market.
  • Iran has currently restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of the war between Iran and the US and Israel, putting strains on world supplies of oil, fertilizer, liquefied natural gas and other important commodities.
  • The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is another significant choke point in shipping.

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Regels

When will there be a significant reduction in shipping through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait?

Manifold Markets
  • Resolution Criteria
  • An option above will resolve to YES if, by the stated date (international standard date format), there is a reduction of 75% or more in all ships passing through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait for at least 7 consecutive days relative to the 7-day moving average for the prior year.
  • I will use data from IMF PortWatch to resolve the market.
  • Iran has currently restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of the war between Iran and the US and Israel, putting strains on world supplies of oil, fertilizer, liquefied natural gas and other important commodities.
  • The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is another significant choke point in shipping.