Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?
One-OffGeopolitiekMiddle East5mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitVerouderde gegevens
Gegevens van 4 jun 2026, 02:24 UTC · beleid pm-quality-2
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 1.2%
Voorspellers
27
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 52 dagen geleden
Verouderd22 mrt 26, 1:1231 dec 26, 23:59
Trends
Alleen virtueel geld, geen echt geldGeen financieel advies
Gekozen uitkomst
Yes1%
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a ballistic missile or cruise missile launched from Iranian territory strikes London (or its metropolitan area) by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news sources (BBC, Reuters, AP, AFP, etc.) confirming a direct hit on London.
- The market resolves NO if no such strike occurs by the deadline.
- Iran fired missiles towards the UK-US base on Diego Garcia, part of the Chagos Islands, which is about 3,800km (2,360 miles) from Iran about the same distance from Iran to London.
- Iran's missile range reaches the capitals of Europe — Berlin, Paris and Rome are all within direct threat range.