When will the US 10 year treasury note yield go higher than 5%?
29.0 ptn (24u)InflationOne-OffBonds & Treasuries2jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingBefore January 1, 2027 54%+29.0ptKoploper van 4 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
5
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+29.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 9 minuten geleden
3 sep 26, 13:591 jan 29, 14:35
Trends
Macrogevoelige Assets
Regels
$40 trillion is a lot! Inflation over 3% is high! Neither political party is really interested in cutting spending.
- All of these lead to an inexorable increase and interest rates on US notes, and bonds.
- This market will result in a positive answer if during DAYTIME markets, the yield of the 10 year ticks up above 5% as reported by the CBOE ten year yield symbol ^tnx
Open markten
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- No change+12.0pt56%
- 25 bps increase-11.0pt43%
- 25 bps decrease+0.1pt1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 73,7 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 4,9 mln.
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 399,3K
- 24u volume
- € 69,2K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting-10.0pt56.6%
- September Meeting-12.5pt43.4%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes-9.0pt61.4%
- No+9.0pt38.6%
- Totaal volume
- € 7,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 40,9K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- 1 (25 bps)-2.5pt36.8%
- 0 (0 bps)+8.0pt34.9%
- 2 (50 bps)-3.0pt21.7%
+3 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETFed decisions (Jul–Oct)
- Pause–Pause–Pause+12.0pt43.7%
- Pause–Pause–Cut+0.8pt1.9%
- Cut–Pause–Pause0%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- August Inflation US - Annual
- How high will inflation get this year?
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- NYC median asking rent in December 2026
- CPI in August
- Core PCE YoY - August 2026
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- China Annual Inflation 2026
- August Inflation China - Annual
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- FAO Food Price Index in August
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
Gerelateerde crypto's
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor When will the US 10 year treasury note yield go higher than 5%??
- Manifold Markets prijst Before January 1, 2027 op 54% per 4 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt When will the US 10 year treasury note yield go higher than 5%? afgewikkeld?
- When will the US 10 year treasury note yield go higher than 5%? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2029 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt When will the US 10 year treasury note yield go higher than 5%? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: $40 trillion is a lot! Inflation over 3% is high! Neither political party is really interested in cutting spending.