Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJanuary 2029 or earlier 64.8%Koploper van 6 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
22
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 18 uur geleden
Verouderd26 dec 25, 09:30 UTC31 jan 29, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
When can I take a fully driverless Waymo from SFO to Lighthaven?
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KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegels
Currently the way Claude Plays Pokemon works is that Claude executes some command with the emulator, and then after that command completes, it takes a screenshot, and considers its next move.
- When the command involves moving the character, this entails use of a "navigation" tool that allows Claude to take multiple steps at a time.
- This is presumably due to how arduous it would be to require Claude to take each step individually.
- It would produce a lot of extra tokens (filling Claude's context with useless content) with Claude not being able to process more than one screenshot per character step without having to stop and think, slowing down gameplay considerably.
- This market resolves YES for all times at or before which a general-purpose, publicly available AI model from Anthropic, either explicitly named Claude, or part of a model series clearly the successor to the Claude series of models, can process frames of a Pokemon game and take actions with an emulator tool, at a faster rate than the character in the Pokemon game can take steps.
- This speed requirement includes all networking and processing latency in an implementation of Claude Plays Pokemon, and must be demonstrated in some publicly-visible form, such as a Twitch live stream.
Open markten
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- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Totaal volume
- € 224,7K
- 24u volume
- € 160,5K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,3 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 344,9K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
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- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 extra uitkomsten
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps??
- Manifold Markets prijst January 2029 or earlier op 65% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps? afgewikkeld?
- When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps? wordt naar verwachting op 31 januari 2029 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Currently the way Claude Plays Pokemon works is that Claude executes some command with the emulator, and then after that command completes, it takes a screenshot, and considers its next move.