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Later or never 28.6%Koploper van 6 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
6
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 13 uur geleden
Verouderd16 feb 24, 17:46 UTC31 dec 28, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will I finish my stuff on time?
Manifold MarketsWill I drop out of my PhD program?
Manifold MarketsWill I get a tenure-track job offer straight out of my PhD?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiRegels
I have been working on it since September 2020, have two publications and one manuscript ready to be published, plus some work-in-progress stuff, and have funding for all of 2024.
- I will use the defense date as the point at which it is "finished".
Open markten
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.5pt4%
- September 30-0.6pt1%
- April 300%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 59,4 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 176,8K
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt13%
- Before 2027-1.1pt5%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 29,5 mln.
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 203580%
- Before 2030-9.1pt62%
- Before 2029-7.9pt17%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 271K
POLYMARKETAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- No+10.9pt97%
- Yes-10.9pt3%
- Totaal volume
- € 24,2K
- 24u volume
- € 3,9K
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1-1.5pt75.8%
- 2+0.5pt24.2%
- 3-1.0pt0%
+3 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-1.6pt73%
- No27%
- Totaal volume
- € 302,9K
- 24u volume
- € 2,8K
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?
- When will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- When will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor What year will I finish my PhD??
- Manifold Markets prijst Later or never op 29% per 17 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt What year will I finish my PhD? afgewikkeld?
- What year will I finish my PhD? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2028 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt What year will I finish my PhD? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: I have been working on it since September 2020, have two publications and one manuscript ready to be published, plus some work-in-progress stuff, and have funding for all of 2024.