What will be the outcome of the 2026 New Zealand General Election?
2.1 ptn (24u)PolitiekOne-OffSchakenVerkiezingSportAI11d
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
National coalition 53.6%+2.1ptKoploper van 4 uitkomsten
National coalition 53.6%+2.1ptVoorspellers
49
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+4.6 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 5 uur geleden
Verouderd2 jan 26, 02:49 UTC6 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
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Resolves to the first government formation after the next New Zealand election (if it's postponed beyond 2026, resolves to the next election after that).
- "Other" might include a grand coalition containing both National and Labour, or a government of small parties without either major party.
- Labour/National need not be the largest party in their coalition for their respective options to resolve, and they may govern alone.
- "the named outcome" means that a new election happens without a non-caretaker government being formed.
- Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Coalition governments include:
- Minority governments
