![Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2Fzzq%2Fajwghjn2s9.jpg&w=128&q=80)
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Republican president, >= 2%, <3% 48.4%Koploper van 8 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
35
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 5 uur geleden
Verouderd9 jul 24, 16:05 UTC1 jan 29, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Macrogevoelige Assets
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Republicans vs Democrats - 2028 Presidential Election
Manifold MarketsEurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026
PolymarketUK Annual GDP Growth 2026
PolymarketChina Annual GDP Growth 2026
Polymarket[Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US economy still be "normal" in each of the following ways on February 14, 2029?
Manifold MarketsRegels
This market will resolve to the answer with the combination of the party of the president elected in the 2024 presidential elections and the average real GDP growth rate for the years 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028.
- If a third-party candidate wins the 2024 presidential election, this market will be canceled.
- Average GDP growth will be calculated as the geometric mean of annual inflation-adjusted GDP growth for each of the four years, as reported by Our World in Data, or another broadly reliable source if the data cannot be obtained via Our World in Data.
- I expect the data to be available at https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/real-gdp-growth?tab=chart&time=2025..2028&country=~USA, but if Our World in Data changes the format of their URLs the data may be found at a different URL.
- My original intent was to resolve the answers of the losing party to NO after the election; but I have been informed that it is not possible in a dependent multiple choice market like this one to resolve only some of the answers.
- Know that the Democrat president answers will be NO when this market resolves.
Open markten
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-1.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 90,2 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,3 mln.
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 358,5K
- 24u volume
- € 35,6K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 554,4K
- 24u volume
- € 33,8K
POLYMARKETAugust Inflation China - Annual
- 0.7% - 0.8%+56.5pt100%
- ≤0.2%-0.5pt0%
- 0.3% - 0.4%-7.3pt0%
+2 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+2.0pt54.2%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.8%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 extra uitkomsten
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 79,7K
- 24u volume
- € 7,6K
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- CPI core in August
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- CPI in September
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- CPI-U index in August
- August Inflation US - Annual
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]?
- Manifold Markets prijst Republican president, >= 2%, <3% op 48% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party] afgewikkeld?
- Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party] wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2029 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party] afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market will resolve to the answer with the combination of the party of the president elected in the 2024 presidential elections and the average real GDP growth rate for the years 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028.