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80% to 90% 25%Koploper van 7 uitkomsten
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2
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multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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7d wijziging
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Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 11 uur geleden
Verouderd10 jun 26, 10:59 UTC31 dec 30, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Regels
Resolves to the share of US adults (18–64) who report using generative AI in the past week, for any purpose (work or personal), in the latest available 2030 reading of the Real-Time Population Survey (RPS — Bick, Blandin & Deming, tracked in the Federal Reserve's "Monitoring AI Adoption" series).
- If the RPS stops publishing a comparable weekly-use measure, resolution falls back to the closest equivalent nationally representative survey: Pew Research Center first, then Gallup ("use AI at least a few times a week" or nearest equivalent; population-wide if available, otherwise workers).
- Resolves when the final 2030 reading is published (expected early 2031).
- Trading closes Dec 31, 2030.
- How phone and assistant usage counts
- The RPS is a self-report survey: it defines generative AI with named examples (ChatGPT, Gemini, Copilot, etc.) and asks whether you used it in the past week.
Open markten
Fed
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase+12.0pt63.7%
- No change-11.0pt34.3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 960K
KALSHIFed decision in Oct 2026?
- Hike 25bps+15.0pt62.9%
- Fed maintains rate-13.0pt33.3%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt1.9%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
+13 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 528,4K
- 24u volume
- € 56,7K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.1pt98%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.1pt1%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.1pt1%
+10 extra uitkomsten
FORECASTEXWill the Fed raise the rate 25bps in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
- Yes65%
- No35%
- Totaal volume
- € 34,7K
- 24u volume
- € 34,7K
POLYMARKETFed Decision in December?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt69.3%
- No change27.7%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt2%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Fed decision in Dec 2026?
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
- How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- What will Fed Gov Barr say during his housing affordability address?
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- Fed decision in October?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Fed rate decision in October 2026
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets prijst 80% to 90% op 25% per 23 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030? afgewikkeld?
- What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves to the share of US adults (18–64) who report using generative AI in the past week, for any purpose (work or personal), in the latest available 2030 reading of the Real-Time Population Survey (RPS — Bick, Blandin & Deming, tracked in the Federal Reserve's "Monitoring AI Adoption" series).