What is the largest annual revenue a single company will get via mechanistic interpretability of deep learning models in 2028?
InflatieOne-Off2j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
x >= $1B 51.9%Koploper van 6 uitkomsten
x >= $1B 51.9%Voorspellers
18
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Verouderd18 dec 22, 21:51 UTC31 dec 28, 23:59 UTC
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Resolves according to my best estimate of revenue in inflation-adjusted 2022 USD on January 1st, 2030.
- I will include and try my best to estimate returns for difficult and illegible cases.
- Mechanistic interpretability is here meant to mean 'any work that is about mechanistically understanding in fine detail what the computations in a neural network are doing'.
- One test of this is if after the work, someone is able to erase and rewrite large parts of the model while maintaining performance, although that is a high bar that doesn't include all work I would consider mechanistic interpretability.
- I will determine what work is/isn't mechanistic interpretability subjectively.
- Examples of possible sources of revenue: - interpretability consultants producing evidence that an AI system is not discriminating based on race for regulators of e.g. insurance. - interpretability is used to specify what humans want from an AI system in a way that improves revenue of an AI lab. - interpretability is used to understand what an AI system has learned about some problem/system so that a company can directly use or sell the knowledge.
