Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNorth Korea 34.4%Koploper van 16 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
44
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 3 uur geleden
Verouderd4 okt 22, 02:52 UTC1 jan 70, 05:00 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)
Manifold MarketsWill the United States government detonate a nuclear weapon anywhere in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich actor will be the next to detonate a nuclear weapon offensively?
Manifold MarketsIf North Korea attempts to detonate a nuclear weapon, will it succeed?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurWill Vladimir Putin and Xi JingPing meet in person in year 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegels
This market resolves once any nuclear weapon is detonated.
- (Including tests and civilian uses.)
- The blast must be independently confirmed by multiple sources and not subject to significant uncertainty as to whether it took place.
- For reference, the most recent nuclear test was in 2017 by the named outcome.
- the named outcome is the only country confirmed to have detonated a nuclear device since 1998, though there are suspicions of more recent secret tests by China and Russia.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests
