Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 26 okt 2026, 08:38 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNorth Korea 34.4%Koploper van 16 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
44
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 9 uur geleden
Verouderd4 okt 22, 02:52 UTC1 jan 70, 05:00 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)
Manifold MarketsWill the United States government detonate a nuclear weapon anywhere in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich actor will be the next to detonate a nuclear weapon offensively?
Manifold MarketsIf North Korea attempts to detonate a nuclear weapon, will it succeed?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRegels
This market resolves once any nuclear weapon is detonated.
- (Including tests and civilian uses.)
- The blast must be independently confirmed by multiple sources and not subject to significant uncertainty as to whether it took place.
- For reference, the most recent nuclear test was in 2017 by the named outcome.
- the named outcome is the only country confirmed to have detonated a nuclear device since 1998, though there are suspicions of more recent secret tests by China and Russia.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests