Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 87.7%
Voorspellers
2
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 58 minuten geleden
Vertraagd22 sep 26, 14:32 UTC28 okt 26, 12:00 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the 'mansion tax' threshold be set below £2 million?
Manifold MarketsUK Autumn Budget 2026: will any working-age benefit be cut or uprated below CPI?
Manifold MarketsUK Autumn Budget 2026: will VAT on domestic gas be cut below 5%?
Manifold MarketsUK Autumn Budget 2026: will the Energy Profits Levy be raised or extended?
Manifold MarketsBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
PolymarketWill California pass a wealth tax referendum in 2026?
PredictItRegels
YES if the Budget announces a recurring tax on net wealth.
- Polymarket priced this at about 12% on 21 Sep 2026.
- Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates).
- A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it.
- A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.
- This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.