Transgender US passports with non-birth gender revoked by February 2029?
One-OffAmerikaanse politiekSamenleving en cultuurGezondheid en geneeskunde2jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 60.1%
Voorspellers
16
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 50 minuten geleden
Vertraagd16 nov 25, 01:43 UTC31 jan 29, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiRegels
Basically the same as my previous market.
- Same resolution criteria, minus the timeline.
- De facto situation or any legal action trigger resolution.
- Phrasing of end of timeline is weird to maximize handling of edge cases.
- Update 2026-05-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The soft revocation scenario (where passports are notionally valid but unusable for re-entry) was an oversight in the original resolution criteria.
- The creator intends to resolve based on what events actually happen rather than specific wording, but acknowledges that the literal text of the market description takes precedence over intent.
