Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Ja 99%
Voorspellers
16
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 17 uur geleden
Verouderd18 aug 25, 02:51 UTC31 dec 30, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Thinking Machines acquired by Apple before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product?
Manifold MarketsWill Thinking Machines surpass Anthropic in revenue before 2029?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRegels
Resolution criteria
- Resolve YES if Thinking Machines Lab (TML) publicly releases a product before Safe Superintelligence Inc. (SSI) by 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2029; resolve NO if SSI releases first by that deadline; resolve N/A if neither releases by then.
- Public timestamps determine precedence; if exact simultaneous release times cannot be distinguished, resolve N/A. “Product release” means any of: (a) a publicly accessible consumer app or web product; (b) an API/developer platform with public sign‑up or paid access (counts once external users beyond the company are admitted, not at waitlist announcement); (c) an open‑source release of runnable model weights or software with a versioned tag on a public repo; or (d) an App Store/Play Store listing.
- Excludes demos, research papers without runnable code/weights, private NDAs/pilots with a single customer, and fundraising/”we’re building” posts.
- Primary verification sources: official sites/announcements and product pages (TML: https://thinkingmachines.ai/; SSI: https://ssi.inc/), company GitHub/orgs, App Store/Play Store pages, or major tech press with explicit availability and timestamps (e.g., TechCrunch/Reuters).
Open markten
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.6pt70.7%
- ChatGPT-2.8pt13.1%
- Grok+0.8pt7.1%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,4 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 50,3K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,-1.0pt89%
- December 31,-3.5pt88%
- November 30,-6.5pt85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$900B+10.4pt100%
- ↑$1.0T-4.5pt82%
- ↑$1.25T-4.5pt57%
+12 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude+1.0pt91.7%
- ChatGPT+1.0pt1.9%
- Gemini0.9%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 60,6K
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+2.0pt91.4%
- Grok+1.0pt1.9%
- Gemini1.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 425,5K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202795%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-9.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt84%
+9 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,5 mln.
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- OpenAI IPO by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
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- OpenRouter AI token usage: Sep 7–13
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- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 99% per 12 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence? afgewikkeld?
- Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria