Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 72.6%
Voorspellers
4
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 45 minuten geleden
Vertraagd26 jun 26, 18:07 UTC28 jun 31, 03:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Elon Musk be worth more than 2 Trillion Dollars before 2027?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic have the largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic have a higher market cap than SpaceX after both IPO?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
PolymarketWill Elon Musk's AI Company (xAI) exceed OpenAI in valuation anytime before 2035?
Manifold MarketsRegels
As part of its astronomically valued IPO, SpaceX justified its valuation by of its ownership of the more speculative xAI / Grok rather than its proven business of putting things into orbit; this market captures the failure of that bet, either via a pivot back to rocketry or the collapse of the company.
- This market resolves YES if SpaceX has an (announced or de facto) a pivot away from its own AI model, spins off its AI business, substantially collapses, or is acquired by a company that does not pursue xAI / Grok.
- This market resolves NO in five years if none of those happen -- principally if SpaceX or its successor entity has more of its revenue or capital in its own-model AI business than in rocketry, starlink, or social media, or other lines of business that aren't own-model AI.
- The hypothetical vast orbiting ring of datacenters will count as xAI if they are training SpaceX-owned models, and not if they are doing something else (training a different model, mining crypto, running Roblox servers, whatever).
- While this market has vague and subjective elements, particularly as market structures and categories may be very different in five years, it will probably be pretty clear before market close if it comes up YES; as such (1) the market may YES early but probably will not NO early, and (2) I will not trade on this market.
