Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 89.2%
Voorspellers
11
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 9 uur geleden
Verouderd4 mei 26, 02:50 UTC2 jan 30, 03:48 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Sam Altman be charged with a felony crime before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Altman become the CEO of Microsoft by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Manifold repeat this Sam Altman CEO market mistake?
Manifold MarketsSam Altman replaced as OpenAI CEO this year?
KalshiSam Altman still CEO of OpenAI through the end of 2026?
FutuurWho will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
KalshiRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to "Yes" if Sam Altman is incarcerated in a correctional facility due to a criminal conviction by the resolution date. "Incarcerated" is defined as being held in a jail or prison following a sentence or remand.
- If he is not imprisoned, or if charges are dismissed, dropped, or result in a non-custodial sentence (such as probation or fines only), the market resolves to "No."
- Reliable reporting from major news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg, The New York Times) confirming the imprisonment will serve as the source of truth for resolution.
- Sam Altman is the CEO of OpenAI.
- This market tracks public information regarding his legal status.
Open markten
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 135,2K
- 24u volume
- € 102,7K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 325K
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Sam Altman is imprisoned for a crime before 2030?
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 89% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Sam Altman is imprisoned for a crime before 2030 afgewikkeld?
- Sam Altman is imprisoned for a crime before 2030 wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Sam Altman is imprisoned for a crime before 2030 afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria