Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingBefore 2031 87.7%Koploper van 8 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
10
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 13 uur geleden
Verouderd17 mrt 24, 17:06 UTC2 jan 30, 04:59 UTC
Trends
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Sam Altman become the CEO of Microsoft by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the outcome of Annie Altman’s lawsuit against Sam Altman? (Altman v. Altman)
Manifold MarketsSam Altman replaced as OpenAI CEO this year?
Kalshi7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.
Manifold MarketsSam Altman still CEO of OpenAI through the end of 2026?
FutuurBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRegels
[image]96% -> 0% -> 80% -> 5% -> 95%
- If anything as bad happens on a pretty liquid market, where the probability jumps this much from similar extremes over many days, all remaining options resolve YES.
- If it hasn't happened by an option's date, resolves NO for that option.
- If ambiguous, it will resolve according to the judgment of a small group of mods, or similar.
- Detailed criteria: (Up to change before the end of march) - 70%+ swings - 4+ times - The swings' high and low points are quantified using the most extreme average over 3 hours.
- If from 1 to 4 pm it's at 74% on avg, and then from 4 to 8pm it's at 76% on avg, and then it crashes to 1%, it counts as the high being 76%. - the high and low points of the swings must get 5+ traders to count, non-withstanding obvious market manipulation of this market. - the market must have a total of 100+ traders at the end of the swings - the market's swinging option must have at least 1000M in liquidity
Open markten
Exchange
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova Quarter Finals match
- Aryna Sabalenka83%
- Linda Noskova17%
- Totaal volume
- € 15,6K
- 24u volume
- € 2,9 mln.
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Atpmatch MUSO 26 Fcerablo
- ABLO+10.0pt72.5%
- FCER-14.0pt27.6%
- Totaal volume
- € 2,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 2,9 mln.
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,3 mln.
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Wtamatch WUSO 26 Nosaeryb
- ERYB+27.0pt81.2%
- NOSA-26.0pt18.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 1 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1 mln.
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 68,000+0.1pt100%
- 70,000+0.4pt100%
- 72,000+0.6pt100%
+8 extra uitkomsten
- BTC 15 min · $78,497.72 target
- Atpmatch MUSO 26 Ageabvan
- Atpmatch MUSO 26 Kkhaltie
- Wtamatch WUSO 26 Ijovcgau
- Atpmatch MUSO 26 Azveldar
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Ethereum above ___ on September 9?
- Atpmatch MUSO 26 Bshecalc
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- How high will BTC get in September?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor When will Manifold repeat this Sam Altman CEO market mistake??
- Manifold Markets prijst Before 2031 op 88% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt When will Manifold repeat this Sam Altman CEO market mistake? afgewikkeld?
- When will Manifold repeat this Sam Altman CEO market mistake? wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt When will Manifold repeat this Sam Altman CEO market mistake? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: [image]96% -> 0% -> 80% -> 5% -> 95%