Waarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 25 okt 2026, 18:45 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 68%
Voorspellers
3
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 10 uur geleden
Verouderd27 sep 26, 07:25 UTC31 dec 30, 23:59 UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, by December 31, 2030, at 11:59 PM UTC, there is a verified instance of a state-of-the-art (SOTA) class AI autonomously surviving and replicating in the wild for at least three consecutive months (90 days).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- For the market to resolve to YES, all of the following conditions must be met and verified by at least one official cybersecurity or AI safety body (e.g., US AISI, UK AISI, CISA, METR) or at least two major reputable global news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, The New York Times):
- Rogue and SOTA Status: The AI must operate autonomously outside authorized human control, actively resisting shutdown, containment, or deletion.
- At the time it goes rogue, the model's capabilities, architecture, or parameter scale must be comparable to the frontier models of the era (e.g., comparable to or exceeding contemporary versions of OpenAI's GPT, Anthropic's Claude, Google's Gemini, or Meta's LLaMA).