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Transformer-based architecture 95.4%Koploper van 11 uitkomsten
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23
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multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 13 uur geleden
Verouderd11 nov 24, 23:53 UTC1 jan 27, 04:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2028?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark?
Manifold MarketsWill Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegels
An option resolves YES if it is true about the AI model, or program, known to be State of the Art in terms of the FrontierMath benchmark, at the end of the year 2026.
- It resolves NO otherwise.
- You're welcome to add any interesting facts that might or might not be true about the state of the art in math problems, as defined by achieving the highest score on the FrontierMath benchmarks.
- I reserve the right to cancel any option that is too vague, too improbable, etc. See also: @/Bayesian/what-will-true-of-the-sota-ai-on-th-y0LE5uE9n9 @/Bayesian/what-will-true-of-the-sota-ai-on-th-ROldIhZZgt (this market) @/Bayesian/what-will-true-of-the-sota-ai-on-th-RQptyR5uO8
- @/Bayesian/will-an-ai-achieve-85-performance-o-hyPtIE98qZ @/MatthewBarnett/will-an-ai-achieve-85-performance-o
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Totaal volume
- € 241,3K
- 24u volume
- € 128K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 349,4K
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
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- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prijst Transformer-based architecture op 95% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2027? afgewikkeld?
- What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2027? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: An option resolves YES if it is true about the AI model, or program, known to be State of the Art in terms of the FrontierMath benchmark, at the end of the year 2026.