Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 58.2%
Voorspellers
49
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 12 minuten geleden
12 okt 25, 18:55 UTC30 jun 27, 22:59 UTC
Trends
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
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PolymarketRegels
Resolves to YES if any LLM released in 2026 exceeds the superforecaster baseline on ForecastBench by July 2027.
- Resolves to NO if this does not happen, or if after January 1, 2027 we have results from enough LLMs (e.g. the leading models from the major AI labs at the time) to be confident this will not occur.
- If The Forecasting Research Institute tells us how this market should resolve, then we will go with what they say.
Open markten
SportsPOLYMARKETCincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings — Over 2.5 total runs-7.5pt74%
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings — Over 3.5 total runs-6.5pt65%
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings — Over 4.5 total runs+0.5pt61%
+26 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 3,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 3,9 mln.
KALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Los Angeles R-1.0pt10.6%
- Buffalo-1.0pt10.6%
- San Francisco8%
+29 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 114,8 mln.
- 24u volume
KALSHIMilwaukee vs Philadelphia
- Philadelphia+27.0pt83.2%
- Milwaukee-26.0pt16.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,8 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,8 mln.
KALSHIFedEx Open de France Winner
- Tommy Fleetwood+2.5pt8.8%
- Ludvig Åberg-0.4pt7.9%
- Matt Fitzpatrick+0.7pt7%
+97 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHICassone vs Tabur
- Murphy Cassone57.4%
- Clement Tabur42.6%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,5 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,5 mln.
KALSHICleveland vs Boston
- Cleveland+17.0pt62.8%
- Boston-17.0pt37.3%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,4 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,3 mln.
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 58.2% per 23 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 30 juni 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves to YES if any LLM released in 2026 exceeds the superforecaster baseline on ForecastBench by July 2027.