Deze markt is gesloten en wacht op bevestigde afwikkeling.
Wacht op geverifieerde afwikkeling
CoinRithm wacht op door de provider bevestigde afwikkeling voordat deze markt als beslist wordt behandeld.
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 94%
Voorspellers
69
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 13 uur geleden
Verouderd10 mei 26, 20:4431 aug 26, 23:59
Trends
94%
6%
Regels
As reported by METR's point estimate, and using METR's cited date of release.
- If an August announcement is made but not measured, I will wait until Dec 1 to resolve.
- If updates to the testing set are made, e.g. TH1.2, we will use the latest iteration's numbers.
- If METR reports 80% TH is 'likely greater than 10h' (or some threshold higher than 10h) but without a point estimate--as they did for Mythos 50% TH--this resolves yes.
- If METR ceases to report or regularly test frontier models I will N/A. I may trade on this market.
