Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling![[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2FStopPunting%2FllgClN6RgS.jpg&w=64&q=80)
[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%) 100%Koploper van 113 uitkomsten
[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%) 100%Voorspellers
191
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 6 uur geleden
Verouderd28 jan 25, 17:01 UTC2 feb 29, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsTrump's Second Term: Will Manifold out-predict Nate Silver?
Manifold MarketsWill the Trade deficit of the US be 10% lower at the end of Trump’s 2nd term
Manifold MarketsWill any Manifold user be imprisoned in CECOT or a similar prison after deportation from the US during Trump's 2nd term?
Manifold MarketsRepublicans favored to win the Senate on Nate Silver's Bulletin by which date?
Polymarket8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job loss [See full title!]
Manifold MarketsRegels
Based on Nate Silver's article (although I think he skipped #86):
- https://www.natesilver.net/p/113-predictions-for-trumps-second
- All predictions without and end date will be assumed to be on the last day of Trump's term, 1/20/2029.
- I will take a snapshot of the percentages on 2/9/2025 (to hopefully get enough volume) to track for this market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/StopPunting/trumps-second-term-will-manifold-ou?play=true) Also See:
- @/StopPunting/which-trump-2028-term-prediction-ca
