Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 89.1%
Voorspellers
12
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 10 uur geleden
Verouderd14 aug 25, 04:32 UTC30 apr 27, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
What will the next Bond film make at the box office?
Manifold MarketsNext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
KalshiNext James Bond film: Actor cast as the villain
KalshiNext James Bond film: Actress cast as Bond girl
KalshiWho will direct the next James Bond Film?
Manifold MarketsWho will sing the next James Bond film theme song?
Manifold MarketsRegels
[image]Resolves YES if Lauren Sanchez has a speaking role in the next major James Bond film, or if she's centrally on screen for any scene (even if the role is non-speaking).
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- NOTE: I'm adding this higher bar because I want to capture "the sort of casting that would annoy people"—if she shows up as a cameo in the background, it really doesn't matter.
- So if she says any words, that automatically is enough to resolve YES (even if it's a tiny role).
- But if she's a key part of any single scene (e.g., you see her in peril in some action scene), that resolves YES as well.
- My intuitive bar will be roughly "someone be certain to notice her role in the movie if they were looking for it" (if most people watching the movie would have no clue who her character is, e.g., a background cameo, I don't want to resolve it YES).
Open markten
Europe
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-3.9pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 22,2 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 494,6K
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- No-3.0pt84.2%
- Yes+3.0pt15.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 809,3K
- 24u volume
- € 123,4K
POLYMARKETNext Prime Minister of Sweden
- Magdalena Andersson+0.5pt77.5%
- Ulf Kristersson-1.0pt20.6%
- Jimmie Åkesson-0.4pt1%
+7 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETECB Interest Rates: September 2026
- 25 bps increase-0.1pt100%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
- 25 bps decrease0%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- December 3122%
- October 31+2.0pt10%
- December 31, 2025-0.1pt0%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Berlin State Election Winner
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
- Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Vote Share?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Vote Share?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: 5th Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Vote Share?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Lauren Sanchez in the next Bond film??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 89% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Lauren Sanchez in the next Bond film? afgewikkeld?
- Lauren Sanchez in the next Bond film? wordt naar verwachting op 30 april 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Lauren Sanchez in the next Bond film? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: [image]Resolves YES if Lauren Sanchez has a speaking role in the next major James Bond film, or if she's centrally on screen for any scene (even if the role is non-speaking).