Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 57.5%
Voorspellers
51
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 3 uur geleden
Verouderd24 nov 22, 23:09 UTC31 dec 59, 23:00 UTC
Trends
Regels
Will we find evidence that we are living in a simulation? I will resolve this market if we find strong evidence in the future that we are living in a simulation.
- If its not obvious in 2060 I will either do a rough literature search, or pay someone else to do it (at least 5-10 hours) and then resolve the market with the probability that reflects my best estimate.
- I will not trade in this market.
- I will be 59 by then, so likely still alive in most future branches that matter.
- If I die, this market will resolve ambigous.
- Dec 17, 8:26pm: Is the simulation hypothesis true? → Do we live in a simulation?
