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Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs. 47.5%Koploper van 10 uitkomsten
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16
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multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 15 uur geleden
Verouderd17 jan 26, 21:35 UTC1 jan 00, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsIf Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsIf Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRegels
This is an independent (aka unlinked) version of: https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence-539844cd3ba1
- I will add new options based on the following polls:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/4fa/multiselect-version-which-answers-t) (https://manifold.markets/embed/4fa/multiselect-version-which-answers-t-9O98NdAyP6) https://manifold.markets/4fa/which-answers-should-be-kept-when-m
- https://manifold.markets/4fa/google-form-in-description-which-an
- Original market's description:
- An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Totaal volume
- € 224,7K
- 24u volume
- € 160,5K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,3 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 344,9K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor [Independent MC Version] If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reasons??
- Manifold Markets prijst Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs. op 48% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt [Independent MC Version] If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reasons? afgewikkeld?
- [Independent MC Version] If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reasons? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2200 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt [Independent MC Version] If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reasons? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This is an independent (aka unlinked) version of: https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence-539844cd3ba1