If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?
AI
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Brakes hit 52%Koploper van 13 uitkomsten
Brakes hit 52%Voorspellers
25
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 16 uur geleden
Verouderd24 mei 24, 20:48 UTC1 jan 00, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsIf Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer's "If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?" market resolve N/A?
Manifold Markets[Independent MC Version] If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reasons?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRegels
An okay outcome is defined in Eliezer Yudkowsky's market as:
- An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.
- In response to Eliezer Yudkowsky's market, Rob Bensinger organized the scenarios with a set of tags giving them a pretty ontology.
- This market resolves YES for the tags that are true of the world when AI has an okay outcome.
- This is great, but the options are long, dense, and partly overlapping, in a way that made it trickier for me to assign relative probabilities.
- To help with that, I made this graphic putting the options in order and assigning tags to clusters of related scenarios.
