Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling2030+ or never 71.5%Koploper van 7 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
60
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+1.1 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 42 minuten geleden
26 okt 23, 18:35 UTC2 jan 30, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?
Manifold MarketsAre we about to hit another AI winter in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegels
This market will resolve when Zvi Mowshowitz declares that we've now entered an "AI Winter".
- The declaration has to be serious and not in jest - i.e. an April 1st joke on Twitter wouldn't count.
- The declaration can be made on Zvi's Twitter, Substack or any other social media platform reliably known to be controlled by Zvi.
- This market will resolve to N/A if Zvi stops being active on social media for a period of at least 6 months.
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Totaal volume
- € 241,3K
- 24u volume
- € 128K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 349,4K
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor In which year would Zvi confirm that we've entered an "AI winter"??
- Manifold Markets prijst 2030+ or never op 72% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt In which year would Zvi confirm that we've entered an "AI winter"? afgewikkeld?
- In which year would Zvi confirm that we've entered an "AI winter"? wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt In which year would Zvi confirm that we've entered an "AI winter"? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market will resolve when Zvi Mowshowitz declares that we've now entered an "AI Winter".