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Verouderd17 mei 24, 08:51 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will the SCOTUS hear a case about AI and copyright law before 2027?
KalshiWill there be an xkcd about AI in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be polling about AI voting advice in 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsContingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegels
Same as https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/are-we-about-to-hit-another-ai-wint?r=TWF4aW1lUmljaGU, but about the year 2026.
- Quote: """ Inspired by https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/smells-a-little-bit-like-ai-winter
- Resolves extremely subjectively, based on whether it seems to me at the end of 2024 like AI progress has stalled and people have gotten much less interested in it. """
- [link preview]
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Totaal volume
- € 241,3K
- 24u volume
- € 128K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 349,4K
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Are we about to hit another AI winter in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 96% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Are we about to hit another AI winter in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Are we about to hit another AI winter in 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Are we about to hit another AI winter in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Same as https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/are-we-about-to-hit-another-ai-wint?r=TWF4aW1lUmljaGU, but about the year 2026.