Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 96.6%
Voorspellers
49
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 37 minuten geleden
17 mei 24, 08:51 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
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KalshiWill there be an xkcd about AI in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegels
Same as https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/are-we-about-to-hit-another-ai-wint?r=TWF4aW1lUmljaGU, but about the year 2026.
- Quote: """ Inspired by https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/smells-a-little-bit-like-ai-winter
- Resolves extremely subjectively, based on whether it seems to me at the end of 2024 like AI progress has stalled and people have gotten much less interested in it. """
- [link preview]
