Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling2026- 26.3%Koploper van 6 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
9
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multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 16 uur geleden
Verouderd2 dec 25, 21:58 UTC30 dec 30, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?
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PolymarketRegels
The market resolves to the first year in which an AI system achieves above 90% on the single shot avg solve rate on all puzzles in the Sudoku benchmark hosted at https://pub.sakana.ai/sudoku/.
- Resolution will be determined by the official results published on that benchmark page.
- If no AI system reaches 90% accuracy by the end of 2030, the market resolves to "2031+".
- Top score as of 2025.12.02 is 33% by gpt-5 high.
Open markten
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 135,2K
- 24u volume
- € 102,7K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 325K
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- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
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- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
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- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor In what year will an AI achieve 90%+ on Sudoku bench??
- Manifold Markets prijst 2026- op 26% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt In what year will an AI achieve 90%+ on Sudoku bench? afgewikkeld?
- In what year will an AI achieve 90%+ on Sudoku bench? wordt naar verwachting op 30 december 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt In what year will an AI achieve 90%+ on Sudoku bench? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: The market resolves to the first year in which an AI system achieves above 90% on the single shot avg solve rate on all puzzles in the Sudoku benchmark hosted at https://pub.sakana.ai/sudoku/.