Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling2027 62.3%Koploper van 8 uitkomsten
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3
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 12 uur geleden
Verouderd13 jul 25, 18:02 UTC1 jan 33, 23:59 UTC
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In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegels
The GSO (Global Software Optimization) benchmark tests whether large-language-model agents can act like real performance engineers.
- It extracts 102 optimisation tasks from the commit histories of 10 production code-bases spanning C, C++, Rust, Go, Java, and Python.
- For each task the agent receives the full repo, a correctness test-suite, and a runtime profiler, then must submit a single patch that (i) keeps all tests green and (ii) reaches ≥ 95 % of the speed-up achieved by the human expert commit.
- The headline metric, Opt @ 1, is simply the fraction of tasks cleared on the very first try; no retries, no cherry-picking.
- All patches are rebuilt and timed in a sandbox so scores are reproducible and publicly displayed on the GSO leaderboard.
- State of play (July 2025)
Open markten
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KALSHITop AI model in September?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark??
- Manifold Markets prijst 2027 op 62% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark? afgewikkeld?
- In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2033 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: The GSO (Global Software Optimization) benchmark tests whether large-language-model agents can act like real performance engineers.