In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard?
17.8 ptn (24u)AIOne-Off6jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling2026 97.8%+17.8ptKoploper van 8 uitkomsten
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6 jul 25, 10:341 jan 33, 23:59
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SimpleBench is a 200‑item multiple‑choice test designed to probe everyday human reasoning that still eludes frontier LLMs, including spatio‑temporal reasoning, social intelligence and linguistic “trick” questions.
- Unlike most other benchmarks, humans still outperform AI on the SimpleBench.
- State of play:
- • Human reference accuracy: 83.7 %
- • 2025 AI accuracy (Gemini 2.5 Pro): 62.4 %
- Why this milestone matters
Open markten
AI
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- September 30-0.1pt99%
- October 31+0.6pt99%
- September 15+0.6pt98%
+8 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 457,4K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-4.0pt59.2%
- ChatGPT-1.3pt24.3%
- Grok+0.9pt7.8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 8,7 mln.
POLYMARKETGPT-6 released by which date?
- October 31,+9.1pt100%
- November 30,+6.8pt100%
- December 31,+5.5pt100%
+10 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETOpenAI's Astra released on?
- September 4+27.7pt37%
- September 17+22.2pt23%
- September 24+22.1pt23%
+27 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude-10.0pt76.5%
- ChatGPT+5.0pt16.7%
- Gemini+2.0pt2.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 149,2K
KALSHIWhen will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Before Sep 16, 2026+14.0pt99%
- Before Oct 1, 2026+9.0pt99%
- Before Nov 1, 2026+6.0pt99%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard??
- Manifold Markets prijst 2026 op 98% per 4 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard? afgewikkeld?
- In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2033 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: SimpleBench is a 200‑item multiple‑choice test designed to probe everyday human reasoning that still eludes frontier LLMs, including spatio‑temporal reasoning, social intelligence and linguistic “trick” questions.