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Play-money forecasting platform
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Verouderd13 jul 25, 22:10 UTC1 jan 30, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegels
GPQA is a graduate-level, 448-item multiple-choice benchmark covering biology, chemistry and physics; it was designed to be “Google-proof,” defeating web-search tricks and challenging even PhD holders ― human experts average ≈ 65% accuracy, while skilled non-experts manage only 34%.
- Because GPQA questions are publicly released, leaderboard results come from independent community test harnesses (e.g., Vellum AI, LLM-Stats, xAI livestreams).
- The best-known AI score today (July 2025) is 88.4%
- Resolution criteria
- The market resolves to the first year in which ALL the following conditions hold:
- Score threshold – A single fully-autonomous system achieves ≥ 95% average accuracy on the standard 448-question GPQA.
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark??
- Manifold Markets prijst 2026 op 97% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark? afgewikkeld?
- In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: GPQA is a graduate-level, 448-item multiple-choice benchmark covering biology, chemistry and physics; it was designed to be “Google-proof,” defeating web-search tricks and challenging even PhD holders ― human experts average ≈ 65% accuracy, while skilled non-experts manage only 34%.