Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingUkraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia 60.4%Koploper van 6 uitkomsten
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683
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
-0.1 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 5 uur geleden
Verouderd2 jul 23, 09:32 UTC31 dec 29, 22:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegels
Trying to predict the longer-term outcome of the conflict using 2030 as a cut off date sufficiently in the future hopefully.
- There is a good chance that Russia and Ukraine disagree about the border.
- For example, Ukraine has not accepted the Crimea annexion in 2014.
- Instead defacto control is sufficient for resolution but it requires 6 months of cease-fire (if not peace).
- The current goal of Ukraine is Pre-2014 border, i.e. Crimea is part of Ukraine again.
- The current goal of Russia is that Ukraine gives more territory to Russia than Crimea, e.g. Luhansk and Donetsk.
